Let’s Talk About Jim Walmsley And The War With Letsrun
I’m going to get some flak for this… but I’m ready to embrace it. I rambled on this topic in this week’s Running Through It Podcast (which I’ll embed below) but I’m just not that impressed with Jim Walmsley’s 27th place finish in last weekend’s Houston Half Marathon.
Now, don’t get me wrong — I respect Walmsley for what he has accomplished on the Ultra circuit but this discussion has gone off the rails. Walmsley, for everything he has accomplished elsewhere, kind of underwhelmed me considering all of the hype pre and post his half marathon appearance. Now some Ultra marathon publications are saying he could contend for an Olympic spot? No Way. Full stop.
Let’s discuss the numbers.
A 64:00 half marathon is an Olympic Trials Qualifier, you can’t take that away from him, but 64:00 is the cut-off for qualification. According to my performance indicator table, Walmsley’s 64:00 at Houston (which is an incredibly fast course) is worth a 2:14–2:15 full marathon and maybe closer to that 2:14 since he is more endurance oriented than speed oriented. 2:14 is a very respectable marathon time, but it should not EVER make the Olympic team — especially when you’re racing runners over10 minutes faster than you.
While the USA is weak in the men’s marathon compared to every other distance, out of the US marathoners last year 2:14 would rank: well behind Rupp’s 2:06, Ryan Vail’s 2:10, Tim Ritchie’s 2:11, Stephen Sambu’s 2:11, Shadrick Biwott’s 2:12, Jared Ward’s 2:12, Scott Fauble’s 2:12 and Chris Derrick’s 2:12 (which SHOULD be faster after London this year). There is also a slew of guys between the 2:13 and 2:15 mark, which makes ranking Walmsley even tougher.
This is why I find the argument, “It will make the Olympic Trials more fun with him racing for a spot” silly. Is he technically racing for a spot? yeah, but so are 100 other runners who won’t have a chance of reaching the podium.
Anything can happen in the sport of running, it is what makes this sport so fun to write and speculate about! However, everything I have looked at shows me Walmsley should be happy with a top 15-top 10 finish at the trial. If he runs 2:15 that has him around 7th place going by 2016 standards (which it looks like we will be in a better place competition wise in 2020) and around 20th place by 2012 standards. It’s so hard to predict what the 2020 trials but I just don’t see the argument.
What about marathoners moving up? Can they compete?
The other part of this conversation is Walmsley saying he would beat a 2:05 marathoner on the trails… this I also have an issue with! Most 2:05 guys are already running mega-miles at altitude, most 2:05 guys are running some trails and definitely hills. They probably aren’t running extremely technical trails but we have never seen a 2:05 marathoner move up to Ultras before. I for one would love to see it because I think it would change a lot of ultra-runners perspective of their sport — and I think it would humble some of the track commentators who think a traditional marathoner would blow Walmsley out of the water. I’m not convinced that the trails would make up for that 10 minute gap in fitness, but I do think it would close the gap considerably.
While top marathoners are running 120–150 mile weeks they really aren’t running those miles on super technical trails. There is something with trails that inherently widens out a runner’s stride as they try not to fall on their face. Again I don’t think this brings Walmsley and Mo Farah to the same level but I do think Mo would be slowed down considerably on the trails. It would be a fun spectacle that could unite the running world. I would love to see a 2:05 guy with some name credibility take Walmsley up on his offer, think Tiger vs. Phil but less staged out and maybe a bit more of something to prove. It’s the old who would win a 500m race Usain Bolt or David Rudisha argument just framed a little differently, which means we will probably never see it play out much to the detriment of the sport.
So what do you think? Does Walmsley have a point? or is he making a bad argument?
Happy Running,
